柘榮縣鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)溫度預(yù)報訂正方法研究

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作者簡介 林天揚(yáng)（1997—），男，福建柘榮人，助理工程師，主要從事應(yīng)用氣象研究。

收稿日期 2023-08-12

Study on the Correction Method of Temperature Forecast in Zherong County

Lin Tian-yang et al（Zherong Meteorological Bureau， Zherong， Fujian 355300）

Abstract From 2011 to 2020， the daily maximum and minimum temperatures of Dajian Station （Shuangcheng Town and Chengjiao Township） in Zherong County and the regional automatic stations in seven townships （Fuxi Town， Zhayang Township， Dongyuan Township， Huangbai Township， Zhazhong Township， Chuping Township and Yingshan Township） and the daily sunshine data of the National Meteorological Station are used. The multiple regression analysis method is used to construct the township temperature forecast correction equation， and the actual data from 2021～2022 is used to test the forecast effect. The comparison and analysis between the non seasonal forecast equation and the seasonal forecast equation are carried out， and the township temperature forecast correction equation suitable for Zherong County is obtained.

Key words Regional automatic station; Temperature prediction; Prediction effect; Correction

摘要 采用2011—2020年柘榮縣大監(jiān)站（雙城鎮(zhèn)、城郊鄉(xiāng)）和境內(nèi)7個鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)區(qū)域自動站（富溪鎮(zhèn)、乍洋鄉(xiāng)、東源鄉(xiāng)、黃柏鄉(xiāng)、宅中鄉(xiāng)、楮坪鄉(xiāng)和英山鄉(xiāng)）逐日（20：00—翌日20：00）日最高氣溫、日最低氣溫，以及國家氣象站逐日日照資料。（剩余4225字）