ICU經(jīng)口氣管插管老年病人口腔黏膜壓力性損傷風(fēng)險預(yù)測模型的構(gòu)建

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Construction of risk prediction model of oral mucosal pressure injury in elderly patients with oral tube intubation in ICU

ZHANG Shuguang， JIANG Hongbiao， HOU Jie， LIU Qian， LIU Shujuan*

Affiliated Hospital of Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine， Shandong 250014 China

*Corresponding Author  LIU Shujuan，E?mail：[email protected]

Abstract  Objective：To construct the risk prediction model of oral mucosal pressure injury in elderly patients with oral tube intubation in ICU，and to verify it internally and externally.Methods：A total of 533 elderly patients hospitalized in the ICU of a tertiary grade A hospital in Shandong province from January 2022 to August 2023 were selected by convenience sampling method.The influence factors were determined by single factor analysis and Logistic regression analysis，and the prediction model of the Nomogram was constructed.The differentiation and calibration of the model were evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer?Lemeshow test.Decision curve analysis（DCA） was used to evaluate the clinical validity of the model.Results：Gender，APACHE Ⅱ scores，hemoglobin，serum albumin，prone position ventilation，vasoconstrictor drugs，and endotracheal intubation retention time were the influencing factors of oral mucosal pressure injury in elderly patients with oral tube intubation in ICU（P<0.05）.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the constructed model was 0.870.Hosmer?Lemeshow test showed that the calibration curve of the model fitted well with the ideal curve.The prediction accuracy of external verification was 85.0%.And DCA ranged from 0.03 to 0.50，which showed a positive net benefit.Conclusions：The constructed risk prediction model has good predictive efficacy，and it can provide reference for early clinical identification of high?risk groups of oral mucosal pressure injury in elderly patients with oral tube intubation in ICU.

Keywords  intensive care unit； oral tube intubation； pressure injury； prediction model； influencing factors

摘要  目的：構(gòu)建ICU經(jīng)口氣管插管老年病人口腔黏膜壓力性損傷風(fēng)險預(yù)測模型，并進(jìn)行內(nèi)外部驗證。（剩余11530字）