凍害對山東省茶葉產(chǎn)量的影響評估

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摘要：為科學評估山東省茶樹凍害影響情況，將山東省茶樹凍害分為越冬期和春茶期凍害兩類，分別找出影響兩類凍害發(fā)生的主要氣象因子，通過多元線性回歸分別建立了山東省茶樹越冬期和春茶期凍害減產(chǎn)預測模型。經(jīng)驗證，所得預測模型準確率較高，可以用來指導茶農(nóng)科學防凍，提高茶葉產(chǎn)量和品質，推動山東省茶產(chǎn)業(yè)高質量發(fā)展。

關鍵詞：凍害；春茶；減產(chǎn)率；產(chǎn)量模型；影響評估

中圖分類號：S571.1；S425                                    文獻標識碼：A                                       文章編號：1000－3150（2024）09-41-5

Evaluation of the Impact of Freezing Damage on

Tea Production in Shandong Province

ZHU Xiuhong1，2， ZHENG Fang3， TIAN Hongliang4

1. Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong， Ji'nan 250031， China;

2. Wulian County Meteorological Bureau， Wulian 262300， China; 3. Convenience Service Center in Xumeng Town，

Wulian  262315， China; 4. Wulian County Science and Technology Bureau， Wulian 262399， China

Abstract： In order to scientifically evaluate the impact freezing damage on tea plants in Shandong， the freezing damage to tea plants was divided into two categories： overwintering period and spring tea period. The main meteorological factors affecting the occurrence of the two types of freezing damage in Shandong were identified， and multiple linear regression was performed to establish prediction models for the reduction rate of freezing damage during the overwintering and spring tea periods in Shandong. The accuracy of the prediction models was verified to be high. The results indicate that forecasting models and influencing factors can be used to guide tea farmers to scientifically prevent freezing， improve tea yield and quality， and promote the high-quality development of Shandong's tea industry.

Keywords： frost damage， spring tea， production reduction rate， yield model， impact assessment

目前山東省茶園總面積2.7萬hm2，年產(chǎn)值40億元，是我國北方最大的茶葉產(chǎn)區(qū)。（剩余5501字）