玉樹(shù)地區(qū)24 h最高、最低氣溫預(yù)報(bào)指標(biāo)研究

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摘要 由于青藏高原天氣的復(fù)雜性和特殊的地理環(huán)境，且受限于站點(diǎn)建設(shè)分布，各家模式對(duì)青海的預(yù)報(bào)準(zhǔn)確率偏低，其中玉樹(shù)地區(qū)的可預(yù)報(bào)性最低，參考性最差。近年來(lái)，玉樹(shù)地區(qū)的預(yù)報(bào)準(zhǔn)確率也一直偏低，人工訂正能力有限，因此，為提高本地預(yù)報(bào)的準(zhǔn)確率，開(kāi)展了本地化客觀預(yù)報(bào)方法研究。

關(guān)鍵詞 高原氣溫；預(yù)報(bào)指標(biāo)；本地化

中圖分類號(hào)：P423.3+1 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼：B 文章編號(hào)：2095–3305（2023）05–0083-03

Study on Forecast Indexes of 24-Hour Maximum and Minimum Temperature in Yushu Region

Qu Xin-yao （Yushu Prefecture Meteorological Bureau， Yushu， Qinghai 815000）

Abstract Due to the complexity of the weather on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the special geographical environment， and limited to the construction and distribution of stations， the accuracy of various models to forecast Qinghai is low， of which Yushu area has the lowest predictability and the worst reference. In recent years， the forecast accuracy of Yushu area has also been low， and the ability of manual correction is limited. Therefore， in order to improve the local forecast accuracy， it is necessary to carry out the research of localized objective forecast methods.

Key words Plateau temperature; Forecast indicators; Localization

由于青藏高原天氣的復(fù)雜性和特殊的地理環(huán)境，且受限于站點(diǎn)的建設(shè)分布，各家模式對(duì)青海的預(yù)報(bào)，尤其是青南地區(qū)預(yù)報(bào)的準(zhǔn)確率偏低，多家首席團(tuán)隊(duì)對(duì)此展開(kāi)了研究[1-3]，發(fā)現(xiàn)模式對(duì)玉樹(shù)地區(qū)的可預(yù)報(bào)性最低，參考性最差。（剩余5255字）