冠心病病人PCI術(shù)后1年出血危險因素的模型構(gòu)建和驗證

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Construction and validation of risk factors model related to hemorrhage in patients with coronary heart disease after PCI 1 year

Abstract  Objective：Based on LASSO?Logistic regression analysis of hemorrhage related factors in patients with coronary atherosclerotic heart disease（CHD） 1 year after percutaneous coronary intervention（PCI），and to establish a Nomogram prediction model for timely and effective clinical intervention.Methods：226 patients with coronary heart disease who underwent PCI in our hospital from January to December 2021 were selected as the study objects，and were divided into hemorrhage group and non?hemorrhage group according to whether they had hemorrhage one year after PCI.LASSO?Logistic regression was used to screen the risk factors of hemorrhage 1 year after PCI，and further construct a Nomogram prediction model.Receiver operating characteristic（ROC） curve and calibration curve were used to verify the value of Nomogram prediction model.Results：One year after PCI，the incidence of hemorrhage in 226 patients with coronary heart disease was 11.95%.Age≥60 years old，gastrointestinal history，chronic renal insufficiency，use of vessel closure，balloon dilation times，PARIS score，precision?DAPT score were the risk factors for bleeding 1 year after PCI（P<0.05）.The Nomogram prediction model predicted the AUC of hemorrhage at 1 year after PCI to be 0.959.Conclusion：Age ≥60 years，history of digestive tract，chronic renal insufficiency，use of vessel closure，balloon dilation times，PARIS score and precision?DAPT score are risk factors for hemorrhage 1 year after PCI in patients with coronary heart disease.The establishment of a Nomogram prediction model based on LASSO?Logistic regression analysis has a certain value in predicting hemorrhage 1 year after PCI.Clinical screening and strict observation of high-risk groups should be carried out，and reasonable treatment measures should be formulated to reduce the risk of hemorrhage.

Keywords  coronary atherosclerotic heart disease； percutaneous coronary intervention，PCI； LASSO?Logistic regression； bleeding； Nomogram model； risk factors； forecast

摘要  目的：基于LASSO?Logistic回歸分析冠心病病人經(jīng)皮冠狀動脈介入（PCI）術(shù)后1年出血的危險因素，并建立Nomogram預(yù)測模型，以便臨床采取及時、有效的干預(yù)方案。（剩余13036字）