三門峽紅富士蘋果始花期預(yù)測模型研究

打開文本圖片集

摘要：為了提高三門峽紅富士蘋果始花期預(yù)測水平和花期凍害防御能力，本研究分析了氣象因子與蘋果始花期之間的關(guān)系，依據(jù)不同數(shù)據(jù)組合，利用回歸法建立了4種始花期預(yù)測模型。結(jié)果表明：3月中旬平均氣溫、下旬平均氣溫、3月平均氣溫、≥0℃積溫、≥3℃活動積溫和有效積溫、≥5℃活動積溫和有效積溫與始花期呈明顯的負相關(guān)；

關(guān)鍵詞：三門峽市；紅富士蘋果；始花期；預(yù)測模型

中圖分類號：S661.1文獻標志碼：A論文編號：cjas2021-0102

Sanmenxia Red Fuji Apple： Prediction Model of the First Flowering Date

JI Zhihong1，2， LIU Xiaoying1，3， ZHANG Yanyan2， CAO Suya2

（1Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Application Technology， Zhengzhou 450003， Henan， China； 2Sanmenxia Meteorological Bureau， Sanmenxia 472000， Henan， China； 3Henan Meteorological Service Center， Zhengzhou 450003， Henan， China）

Abstract： In order to improve the prediction level of the first flowering date of Red Fuji apple in Sanmenxia and enhance the variety’s tolerance to freezing injury during flowering period， the relationship between meteorological factors and the first flowering date was analyzed in this study. According to different data combinations， four prediction models of the first flowering date were established by regression method. The results showed that the average temperature in mid-March， the average temperature in late March， the average temperature in March， the≥0℃accumulated temperature， the≥3℃active accumulated temperature and the effective accumulated temperature， the≥5℃active accumulated temperature and the effective accumulated temperature were significantly and negatively correlated with the first flowering date. The

Keywords： Sanmenxia City； Red Fuji apple； first flowering date； prediction model

0引言

三門峽屬暖溫帶半干旱內(nèi)陸性氣候，年平均氣溫14.1℃，年降雨量568.3 mm，年日照時數(shù)2091.4 h，全年無霜期211天，平均相對濕度61%，最冷月（1月）平均氣溫-0.1℃，最熱月（7月）平均氣溫26.6℃。（剩余6616字）